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Market Dynamics: Tight Supply Of High Quality Cotton In The Mainland

2021/11/7 16:57:00 8

Cotton

      Because of the high price of seed cotton purchase this year, many ginning plants hesitated to purchase seed cotton. Some even gave up purchasing seed cotton processing lint at a high price after collecting some seed cotton, and directly bought from the futures market to share the cost of high price lint. At present, there is a shortage of high-quality raw materials in the downstream of cotton spinning, and the National Reserve will be sold out of 30000 tons in a day, Some of the cotton with poor quality has been in the flow auction. Even if the national reserve imported American cotton as reserve cotton, the current domestic storage capacity is not enough, so we can only lease other warehouses as spare warehouses. If we calculate the domestic cotton gap, we can see as follows: the import quantity in previous years + the strategic task of national reserve to build more than 3 million tons + the quantity of Xinjiang 30% production reduction + the additional consumption of India and Vietnam capacity transfer. How big is the gap?

        Don't expect a high cotton yield in 2022 / 2023. It's impossible. The weather will not be favorable in the next 10 years. The Huanghuai region is about to enter a high water cycle. There will be plenty of water in the north and drought in the south. How can the cotton yield be high? This is the case all over the world.
      It is understandable that the price of cotton bears has been depressed at present, but the more pressure is, the more the price will rise. For example, where are the warehouse receipts of 2201 contract come from and what to take for delivery? The position of 2201 contract entering the delivery month this year is a record. According to the rules, 2201 contract must be the delivery of new cotton this year. We hope that the short positions can be changed.
      Cotton is a game of Yang Mou. Bears can press hard. Bulls have plenty of time. The whole capital market is watching the outcome of cotton futures this year.
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