A Shares Have Recently Struggled To See Significant Money Making Effects.

In view of the "golden nine silver ten" argument, Yang Delong thought there should be a rebound.

The strength of the rally may be a continuation of the previous rhythm. It may rebound 200 points, callback 100 points, and maintain the rhythm of "advancing two to retire".

Yesterday, most of the plates were rising, and the index was also a small increase. Everyone was thinking about how to deduce in September. When it comes to August, it is a market that first advanced and then suppressed. The whole Shanghai stock index rose by 3.56% in August, and there was a trend of "three links" in technology. In September, many people dreamed of "gold nine silver ten". Would September be a good harvest month?

Qianhai open source fund Yang Delong's view is that in September, the overall market should be mainly based on the rebound of shocks, and the possibility that the monthly line will continue to catch up is relatively large. The main reason is that many favorable factors will gradually be fulfilled in September. For example, the Fed's interest rate hike before the market is worried. The recently released non-agricultural employment data is relatively poor. The possibility of raising interest rates by the fed in September is basically ruled out. It is estimated that the Federal Reserve will consider raising interest rates at the end of the year, which will reduce the market's concerns.

On the other hand, the opening of Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong is getting closer and closer. Recently, Hong Kong stock has been out of a continuous upward trend thanks to the opening of Shenzhen Hong Kong stock exchange. Hong Kong Stock Exchange has achieved a net inflow for more than a dozen trading days, and nearly 100 billion of its capital has entered Hong Kong stocks.

Before I said repeatedly in the report, A shares tend to lag behind us stocks and Hong Kong stocks. First of all, US stocks rise and then Hong Kong stocks will finally pmit to A shares. Now A shares are in a stage of rising inflation, so the trend of Hong Kong stocks that we see now may be the trend of A shares in the coming months.

Recently, it has been more difficult to work. Yang Delong believes that the weak rebound power of A shares is still related to the lack of confidence of investors. We know that A shares have never been short of funds and mainly lack confidence, because we still can not see the obvious effect of making money in A shares, so many off-site funds are still watching, and the enthusiasm of fund raising in the field is also relatively weak. The main reason is that after last year's sharp fall, many investors were injured more seriously. Maybe the time needed for restoring confidence is needed.

We can see that the bottom of the market is constantly rising. This is an indisputable fact. From the more than 2600 points before and after the Spring Festival to the present 3000 points or more, the bottom has basically raised nearly 500 points, that is to say, there has been a certain upward trend.

Since the structure of investors in A shares is still dominated by retail investors, the response is slow, and it may take a while for them to get some obvious results.

Only then will there be a faster rise.

Yesterday's hot spot is undoubtedly the electrical sector, as well as strong cyclical resources, coal, steel and so on, or more than 1%.

The rise of non-ferrous metals and coal is mainly related to the information level, and the capacity to iron and steel and coal industries to increase production capacity will be increased. The relevant listed companies are generally the leading ones in the industry, and it is beneficial for them to go to capacity production. Only by eliminating some backward capacity can we improve the concentration of the banking industry and improve the listed companies.

Therefore, the increase of production capacity is beneficial to the industries such as nonferrous metals and coal. Of course, the sustainability of their rebound is not too strong.

At the G20 summit in Hangzhou, it was mentioned that from 2016, we vigorously pushed ahead, reducing the tapping capacity by one hundred million to 150000000 tons in five years, and then withdrawing from coal production capacity of around five hundred million tons in 35 years. This reflects an attitude of management, which has also formed a support for these plates, but I still feel that the sustainability is not enough.

There are still many problems in the industry itself. In addition to overcapacity, these industries often have no advantages in terms of upstream and downstream premiums, especially in the steel industry.

Upstream is squeezed by the three giants of iron ore, while downstream customers tend to be big customers such as some big auto factories, so they are weak in premium capacity. Even if they gradually go to production capacity, the profits of enterprises need to be released for a longer time. When the economic cycle starts to rise, that is, when our economy enters a rising cycle, the profits of these industries will burst out. Therefore, the investment in these sectors is more speculation. It may be difficult to achieve profits in the rebound, but the rotation of the plates will gradually take shape.